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- GC43B-05: Record Warmth and Surge of Global Mean Temperature in 2023 and 2024 - Rarely Simulated in GCMs, Yet Highly Predictable in an Initialized Model, and Caused by ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies
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NOLA CC
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Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington Seattle Campus (First Author, Presenting Author)
Roberto Bilbao, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
Aaron Donohoe, Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington
Stefano Materia, Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Global temperature rose sharply in 2023, making it the second warmest year on record, at 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, while 2024 was even warmer and the first recorded year to exceed a 1.5°C anomaly. The year-to-year warming from the second half of 2022 to the second half of 2023 was almost 0.5°C, the largest over the historical record. The reasons for this rapid warming are still being debated. Here we investigate the probability, causes, and predictability of this event using a set of climate model simulations and a 100-member forecast ensemble, initialized on 1 November 2022, using the fully-coupled EC-EARTH model. Climate models with historical forcings simulate the amount of warming from 2022 to 2023 extremely rarely, with a likelihood of 1 in 6,000 years. The forecast ensemble correctly predicted about 75% of the observed warming in 2023. The remaining 25% may result from unpredictable natural variability within the system during 2023, particularly strong El Nino events in 2023 and increased sunlight absorption in the northern hemisphere. These factors were more common in the forecasts that better predicted the observed warming. The forecasts successfully predicted that 2024 would be even warmer than 2023, and the first year above 1.5°C.
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