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  • Presentation | S41E: Advances in Understanding and Mitigating Induced Seismicity in Geoenergy Systems II Poster
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  • S41E-0248: Probabilistic Forecasting of Induced Seismicity Rates and Frequency-Magnitude Distributions with an Interpretable Deep Learning Model
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  • Board 0248‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)
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Author(s):
Zhengfa Bi, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (First Author, Presenting Author)
Nori Nakata, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Rie Nakata, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Charuleka Varadharajan, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Michael Mahoney, University of California Berkeley


We develop an interpretable deep learning model to forecast how the sizes of earthquakes evolve over time in geothermal fields. By combining physical data such as fluid injection, pressure, and past seismicity, the model predicts the full distribution of earthquake magnitudes—including the chances of larger, potentially hazardous events. Applied to real sites in California and Utah, it identifies early-warning signals and shows how operational changes influence seismic risk. This approach helps guide safer, data-driven decisions in managing geothermal energy.



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