Heat waves are becoming more dangerous as the climate changes, but most heat-related illnesses and deaths can be prevented if people take protective actions. The problem is that people don't always understand their local heat risks the same way that scientists do.

We created a new tool called the Risk Analysis-Perception (RAP) Framework to compare what scientists say about heat danger in different areas with what local residents actually think about their risk. Using survey data from over 11,000 Americans between 2018-2022 and official health risk assessments, we mapped these differences across every U.S. county.

We found major mismatches between scientific assessments and public worry, especially in Appalachian and Pacific Northwest communities. In many places, scientific data shows high heat-health risks, but residents aren't very worried. In other areas, people are more concerned than the data suggests they should be.

These gaps happen because people rely on their personal experiences and gut feelings about risk, which can differ from scientific analysis. Our framework helps identify where targeted communication and preparation efforts are most needed to protect communities from extreme heat.