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  • Presentation | NH42B: Recent Advances in Flood Risk: Prediction, Monitoring, Assessment, Management, Mitigation, and Adaptation Planning I Oral
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  • NH42B-03: Coastal Storm Tide Modelling for the US Northeast
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    NOLA CC
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Author(s):
Doyup Kwon, Princeton University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Ning Lin, Princeton University
Amirhosein Begmohammadi, Princeton University
Dazhi Xi, The University of Hong Kong
Christine Blackshaw, Princeton University


Although coastal flooding due to storm tides generated from tropical cyclones (TCs) under a changing climate have been studied extensively, the same cannot be said about extratropical cyclones (ETCs). In order to comprehensively understand flood risk in areas susceptible to both types of phenomena, ETCs must be considered as well, as they are typically weaker but much more frequent than TCs. Here, we use a combination of storm tide models and statistical methods to quantify flood hazards along the US Northeast towards the end of the century.


We drive storm tide simulations using historical and projected climate data and add projections of sea level rise (SLR) to generate expectations of flood levels and return periods due to ETCs. We then combine these expectations with those due to TCs in order to examine the relative importance of each type of cyclone. Our preliminary findings show that ETCs are predicted to play a relatively larger role in creating higher storm tides in the future. Through this work, we have created a more holistic projection of coastal flooding risk in this region, as well as provide insight into which kinds of storms will contribute to worse flooding as the climate changes.




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