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  • Presentation | GC32C: Multisector Dynamics: Understanding Extreme Weather, Compound Hazards, and Their Impacts I Oral
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  • GC32C-04: Can Graph-based Reservoir Computing Models Forecast Western U.S. Drought?
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Author(s):
Zachary Strasberg, University of New Mexico Main Campus (First Author, Presenting Author)
William Chapman, Sandia National Laboratories
John Smith, Sandia National Laboratories
Corinne Teeter, Sandia National Laboratories
Joshua Mott, Sandia National Laboratories
Louis Scuderi, University of New Mexico
Nicole Jackson, Sandia National Laboratories


Drought has serious impacts on health and the economy in the Western U.S., but it’s difficult to predict weeks or months in advance. This study tests a new machine learning approach called graph reservoir computing (Graph RC) to improve drought forecasting. We compare it to ConvLSTM, another widely used model type, using historical weather and climate data. We test whether adding more variables, using higher-resolution data, and including 3-D atmospheric structure can improve predictions. We expect the graph-based model with more detailed input data to perform best and help advance drought forecasting.



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