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- GC43F-0858: Emulating Natural Climate Variability with InVERT: Internal Variability Emulator for Regional Temperature
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Board 0858‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Marissa Saenger, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego (First Author, Presenting Author)
Nicholas Lutsko, UCSD
Pascal Polonik, University of California San Diego
Katharine Ricke, University of California San Diego
Natural climate variability is an important contributor to characteristics of extreme events in climate change impact projections. Understanding natural variability typically requires many Earth System Model (ESM) simulations, which are computationally costly. Climate emulators are cheaper, simpler models that are often used to explore how different socioeconomic and emissions pathways affect global temperatures. Most climate emulators can accurately represent temperature responses to greenhouse gas emissions, but do not include internal variability. We present a standalone emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature variability (InVERT), which can supplement output from existing climate emulators to examine the influence of natural variability without relying on ESMs. The emulator output retains key properties of the internal variability observed in the ESM simulations used to train it.
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