The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is modernizing how flood hazards are modeled and communicated to better support risk-informed decisions across the United States. In partnership with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and technical contractors, a new modeling framework is being developed to provide more accurate and actionable flood hazard information in both gaged and ungaged areas. Moving beyond traditional flood zone maps, the approach uses probabilistic modeling to estimate the likelihood of different flood depths and velocities, including from extreme rainfall and complex flood scenarios.

Since 2022, the NFIP and its partners have advanced technical methods through several pilot studies, including simulations of storm patterns, refined mesh resolution, dam and levee breach modeling, and the representation of infrastructure operations. These efforts have supported consistent modeling workflows and data products that capture uncertainty and support scalable, risk-based analysis.

The goal is to begin national implementation in 2027, using a flexible strategy that applies detailed modeling in high-consequence areas and streamlined approaches where appropriate. This evolving system will help communities, engineers, and decision-makers better understand flood risk, especially in areas with limited historical data or high uncertainty.