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- [ONLINE] SH21G-VR8886: X-TOFF 2.0: Sub-Minute Solar Flare Duration Forecasts with SDO/EVE for Real-Time Space-Weather Operations
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Juan Camilo Buitrago-Casas, University of California Berkeley (First Author, Presenting Author)
Andrea Lizeth Lopez Rodriguez, Observatorio Astronómico Nacional, Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Marianne Peterson, University of Minnesota Twin Cities
Lindsay Glesener, University of Minnesota Twin Cities
Juliana Vievering, Applied Physics Laboratory Johns Hopkins
Matthew Choquette, University of Minnesota Twin Cities
Solar flares are sudden explosions on the Sun that can knock out radios and harm satellites. To keep missions safe, scientists need to know not just if a flare will happen, but also how long the current flare will keep blasting out harmful radiation.Our tool, X-TOFF (X-ray Time-of-Flare Forecast), tackles this problem. The first version used data from NOAA’s GOES satellites, but those measurements arrive a few minutes late. For critical operations, that lag is a big deal.
The new X-TOFF 2.0 taps a different instrument aboard NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory called EVE. EVE sends its data to Earth in about 20 seconds, so the forecast is nearly real-time. We trained a machine-learning model on thousands of past flares and showed it can predict, within a couple of minutes, how much longer an ongoing flare will last.
This faster warning system already helped time a successful double-rocket launch in 2024, and it will support upcoming missions. We plan to release the code and an online dashboard so anyone, from space-weather forecasters to satellite operators, can benefit from quick, reliable flare-duration forecasts.
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