In the southern U.S., plantation pine forests can be managed not just for wood, but also for their fallen pine needles—called pine straw—which is sold for use in landscaping. In Georgia, pine straw was worth $127 million in 2022. This project looks at how satellite data can help predict how much pine straw these forests will produce.

We studied four pine plantations in Georgia from 2022 to 2024. Two sites had richer soil and bigger trees, while the other two had less productive soil and smaller trees. At each site we collected tree canopy data and compared it to satellite data.

Non-linear models were used to understand how the tree canopy changes with the growing season. Then, we linked those changes to how many needles were on the trees. Finally, we used that information to estimate how much pine straw would fall to the ground.

We found that forests on richer soil had more complicated patterns, while forests on poorer soil were more predictable. Our goal is to help land managers use satellite data to estimate next year’s pine straw harvest and better understand how forests respond to their environment.