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- V21A-01: Decoding the Hidden Life of Magmas: From Crystals to Eruption Forecasting (invited)
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NOLA CC
Author(s):Generic 'disconnected' Message
Fidel Costa Rodriguez, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (First Author, Presenting Author)
Volcanoes are complex systems, and anticipating when they might erupt is a major scientific and societal challenge. Monitoring tools such as seismic, gas, and deformation data provide important clues, but many active volcanoes have little or no historical record to guide interpretation. Crystals and rocks erupted by volcanoes preserve an additional archive of information that can help to address this problem. Their chemical compositions and internal zoning record where magmas were stored and how they moved before eruption. New analytical techniques now allow us to study hundreds of crystals in detail, and by applying statistical tools and machine learning, we can begin to map the number and connectivity of underground magma reservoirs. Diffusion chronometry, which uses the decay of chemical gradients inside crystals as a natural clock, helping us estimate how long magmas were stored or transported. Combining these crystal records with numerical simulations and probablistic models to address uncertainities allows for a more robust view of magmatic systems. By linking timescales and storage environments from petrology with geophysical signals, we can build better models of how volcanoes work and improve forecasts of volcanic eruptions.
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