In this study, we present a new approach that combines earthquake probability analysis with a geometric ray-tracing method to quickly map where tsunamis are most likely to impact coastlines. Using data from past large earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.4), we estimate how often tsunamis occur and use this information to release 9,000 simulated rays from major fault zones around the world. These rays show how the shape of the ocean floor directs tsunami energy and creates areas where waves naturally focus and intensify.

We tested this new method using the 2025 Kamchatka tsunami and compared the results with those from a sophisticated numerical model (FUNWAVE) and real data from deep-ocean buoys. After adjusting for small timing differences related to ocean and Earth properties, the agreement between the model outputs and observations was strong. The focused energy zones identified by ray-tracing matched the areas of highest tsunami impact obtained from the model and observations. This demonstrates that our combined method provides a fast, efficient way to identify high-risk coastal regions and can help improve global tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems.