Primary Convener:
Davide Zaccagnino, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Convener:
Ilaria Spassiani, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology
Robert Shcherbakov, University of Western Ontario
Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Early Career Convener:
Giuseppe Petrillo, Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Chair:
Davide Zaccagnino, Sapienza University of Rome
Ilaria Spassiani, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology
Robert Shcherbakov, University of Western Ontario

Statistical seismology has taken impressive advances during the last few decades thanks to the incorporation of empirical observations within modelling of seismicity and the empowerment of new techniques and mathematical tools. However, our understanding of earthquake physics is still poor and our ability to forecast major events is limited. This session is devoted to discussing original methods and integrated techniques combining mathematical, physical and AI-based approaches for enhancing earthquake forecasts and catalogue simulations. Research works about the following topics are welcome:1) Modeling of large earthquakes as extreme events. 2) Stochastic earthquake simulations. 3) Stochastic and physics-based methods for forecasting induced and volcano seismicity. 4) Application of physics-informed neural networks to earthquake forecasting. 5) Statistical and physics-informed time-dependent earthquake forecasting. 6) Early-warning and short-term earthquake forecasts based on statistical, physics-informed and AI-enhanced modeling. 7) Modeling long-term recurrence of large earthquakes. 8) Earthquake hazard communication and results in regional seismic hazard.

Index Terms
3245 Probabilistic forecasting
4313 Extreme events
4316 Physical modeling
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction

Suggested Itineraries:
Disasters‚ Calamities and Extreme Events
Science Communications
Machine Learning and AI
Open Science and Open Data
Global Impacts‚ Solutions‚ & Policies

Cross-Listed:
NH - Natural Hazards
T - Tectonophysics
NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
V - Volcanology‚ Geochemistry and Petrology

Co-Organized Sessions:
Natural Hazards

Neighborhoods:
2. Earth Interior
1. Science Nexus