Primary Convener:
Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Convener:
Kate Brauman, University of Alabama
Annarita Mariotti, NOAA
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah

Early Career Convener:
Gabrielle Brown, University of Oklahoma

Chair:
Jadwiga Richter, U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Kate Brauman, University of Alabama
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
Gabrielle Brown, Northern Vermont University

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, driven by changes in the Earth system, underscore the urgent need to advance Earth system predictability across timescales. This session will explore the grand challenges and advancements in this field, with a focus on the actionable timeframe from weeks to decades, which is crucial for addressing issues related to societal resilience including food, water, energy, infrastructure, and economic stability. Key topics include integrating Earth system science disciplines to enhance predictability from global to local scales, advancing subseasonal to decadal predictions, leveraging advanced modeling techniques such as multiscale modeling, data assimilation, and AI/ML approaches. Additionally, the session will address the needed coordination across scientific, agency, research, user, and private sector communities to improve preparedness and adaptation strategies. Contributions that utilize tools like the WWRP/WCRP S2S Database, Subseasonal Consortium, NMME, CMIP Decadal Prediction Experiments, and engage directly with vulnerable regions are highly encouraged.

Index Terms
3305 Climate change and variability
1616 Climate variability
1622 Earth system modeling
1637 Regional climate change

Suggested Itineraries:
Climate Change and Global Policy

Cross-Listed:
SY - Science and Society
A - Atmospheric Sciences

Neighborhoods:
3. Earth Covering